Moldova is a diverse and multi-ethnic country, with a sizeable Russian-speaking minority, making up approximately one-quarter of the population. Overall social cohesion in the country is considered weak, and the society remains divided, primarily along geopolitical and ethno-linguistic fault lines. The ongoing settlement process with the Transnistrian region continues to impact the internal stability of Moldova. The country faces challenging demographic issues, such as low fertility rates, low life expectancy, an ageing population and a brain drain.

In November 2016 SeeD began working with the UN system and a local partner, the Association for Participatory Democracy (ADEPT. Moldova is an example where different members of the UN Country Team have decided to support a SCORE project, bringing together the Office of the UN Resident Coordinator, UNDP, UNICEF, UN Women and UNFPA. Using the SCORE methodology, we explored five major thematic areas contributing to overall social cohesion in the country: fostering constructive civic engagement, reversal of brain drain and emigration tendency, sharing human rights ethos, prevention of estrangement tendencies in Gagauzia and support for gender equity and inclusion. Our work focussed heavily on adolescent development and we helped partners to use evidence to shape policies which could respond to the needs of Moldova’s young people.

In 2022, SeeD partnered with UNDP Moldova to implement a new round of the SCORE Index on the right bank of the Nistru river. This phase built on previous work to provide updated insights into social cohesion, intergroup relations, and civic engagement, at a time of growing regional uncertainty. The 2022 SCORE focused on how developments such as the war in Ukraine, economic pressures, and governance challenges were affecting trust, tolerance, and participation across Moldovan society. The findings have supported evidence-based programming and policy dialogue, particularly in areas related to polarization, youth engagement, and resilience to external shocks.

In 2023, SeeD began developing a Social Tensions Monitoring Mechanism (STMM) to support early warning and response. The first phase focused on defining a system of tools capable of spotting anti-systemic and contentious potential, and identifying entry points to address them. The STMM framework integrates perspectives from social psychology, conflict analysis, peacebuilding, and early warning systems.

A second phase of STMM implementation is currently underway, focusing on Moldova’s current socio-political challenges. These include the effects of the war in Ukraine, economic pressure due to rising energy costs, and tensions related to the Transnistrian settlement. To assess how these factors impact trust, tolerance, and cohesion, SeeD is working with USAID and the UN to conduct complementary SCORE rounds on both banks of the Nistru river. The updated SCORE data feeds directly into the STMM, providing real-time insights into civic contentiousness and helping partners coordinate effective responses.